On March 2nd of this year, an article 6,000 Souls, was posted in Antiwar.com blog speculating on what would happen if our Iranian enemy were able to fatally strike one of our aircraft carriers and send it to the bottom.
This has not happened, and for a good reason. It does seem the navy knows it is possible and is sensibly, if not wisely staying out of range.
Wisely would be bringing the navy home and realizing the day of the invulnerable behemoth vessel is over.
Still, distance is what works, but the realization that a change of direction might be in order does not appear to have dawned on the Military Industrial Complex.
Right now, the Navy is still building what does not work. Well, it can work against non-peer adversaries. If all our future adversaries are Venezuela or Cuba it might overawe them.
Then again, the navy of tomorrow will want more the a few cabin cruisers with drones to pad the budget.
Currently, There are two Ford Class and one America Class carriers under construction.
The estimated cost of a Ford is 13 Billion Dollars.
Do we need them?
Well, of course newer is better might be arguable, but will the boats under construction do better against an enemy that has drone and missile weapons that cause carriers to keep their distance?
Against Iran and the Houthis maybe something can be cooked up, but against really big players the problems only get worse.
We looked to Professor Steven Hsu’s thoughts on the matter.
He is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University, and has a PhD from Berkeley.
At his blog, Information Processing, He discussed the issue in a November 9, 2021, post, The Balance of Power in Western Pacific and the Death of the Naval Surface Ship.
Professor Hsu introduces the post by noting the actions of the PLARF (People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces).
“Recent satellite photos suggest that PLARF (People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces) have been testing against realistic moving ship targets in the deserts of the northwest. Note the ship model is on rails in the second photo below. Apparently, there are over 30km of rail lines, allowing the simulation of evasive maneuvers by an aircraft carrier (third figure below).”
So, the Chinese were simulating an attack on ships in the desert? There are none, so it is reasonable to speculate it was against someone’s navy.
Who could that be?
We currently have 11 aircraft carriers. Forbes had a recent article about the problems in building newer carriers, but it is difficult to find information on what the plan is to counter the difficulties that are currently preventing President Trump from finally completely accomplishing the promised destruction of Iran.
Clearly, no one is addressing the problem.
Among the world’s navies, we have only one even near peer, yet we can’t even get near the shore of a country that spends a fraction what we do.
Does anyone think a conflict over Taiwan would be anything other than a debacle?
At the National Interest, economist and multipolarity podcast co-host Philip Pilkington explains why the Russian Oreshnik would be fatal to the big boats. One would hope that we do not have plans to deploy the Poopy Jerry off of Murmansk.
Someone is thinking differently, and it’s the nation that started the first naval revolution hundreds of years ago.
Portugal is putting in service a drone carrier that cost a fraction of what we build and needs a fraction of the crew.
As reported by UPI,
“The vessel, named the NRP D. Joao II, was launched April 7 at a shipyard in Galati, Romania. The ship was ordered by the Portuguese Navy and designed and built by Dutch shipbuilder Damen Group.
The 353-foot vessel, with a displacement of between 7,000 and 9,000 tons, is scheduled for delivery to the Portuguese Navy later this year for sea trials.”
Interestingly:
“Defense experts say Portugal’s experiment demonstrates how middle-sized naval powers may increasingly favor agile, lower-cost unmanned platforms over traditional capital ships as military budgets tighten and personnel shortages worsen.”
In all probability, the Portuguese are not planning a reconquest of the Ultramar, but could it send our carriers to the bottom? Who knows, but the signal is that the future is coming.
Is anyone in the Navy Department thinking about it?
It is often said that Israel is our aircraft carrier in the Middle East.
If one thinks about, the United States could be considered that. The continental land mass is relatively compact and has a lot of landing strips. Let’s be our own aircraft carrier. The savings could be fantastic.
Richard Morchoe is the author of She Searches For Monsters To Destroy: America and the Eternal Recurrence of Unnecessary Wars. His substack is The Long Hill Institute. His email is rmorchoe@ymail.com.
