Apparently, the Bush administration, in consultations with Abizaid and the military commanders in Iraq, has decided to do something about the stalemates at Najaf and Fallujah. The game plan that they’ve made public seems vague and it is unclear what they intend to gain by making these moves.
In Fallujah there have been no reports that any weapons have been turned in at all, other than the pick-up load of “junk” that was turned in the first day. That means that none of the varying series of demands that the Americans have made on the people of Fallujah have been met. No one is even talking about the four mercenaries that were killed in Fallujah anymore. The cease-fire fizzled into rebel attacks answered by American bombs and helicopter gunship attacks. Snipers are apparently plying their trade on both sides and mortars are shot at the Americans regularly.
The latest announced plan for Fallujah is for Marines to make a “joint patrol” with “Iraqi security forces” on Tuesday, whatever that means. I suppose that if the patrol is able to make its way into and out of Fallujah uneventfully, the Marines can declare the siege a success. Whatever is supposed to happen after that is unclear.
U.S. troops will begin patrols alongside Iraqi security forces in Fallujah, said Hachim al-Hassani, a top Iraqi negotiator. The move is an apparent attempt to restore control over the insurgent stronghold without a full-scale Marine assault.
But like a previous agreement aimed at reducing the violence in the city, the new step hinged greatly on the response of Sunni guerrillas, who were asked to turn in their heavy weapons.
“We hope the U.S. soldiers will not be attacked when they enter the city. If they are attacked, they will respond and this will lead to problems,” al-Hassani told The Associated Press.
The Najaf situation is similar. The Army is saying they’re going to move into the “modern” areas of the city, in a quest for Sadr, I suppose, though he isn’t in the “modern” part of the city. I’m not sure what looking for him in a place he isn’t in is supposed to accomplish, but the Army says it will “tighten” the “clampdown.” Mmmkay.
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We probably will go into the central part of the city. Will we interfere in the religious institutions? Absolutely not,” said Hertling, a deputy commander of the 1st Armored Division. He did not say when the move would occur, but it appeared unlikely for several days and was aimed at tightening the clampdown on radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his militia.
“It’s not going to be large-scale fighting, the likes of other places, but it’s going to be critical,” he said. “We’re going to drive this guy into the dirt.”
“Either he tells his militia to put down their arms, form a political party and fight with ideas not guns – or he’s going to find a lot of them killed,” he said.
Every Muslim in Iraq and across the entire Middle East is saying that if the Americans go into Najaf, they will Fallujah-ize the entire region, but I guess the Americans think they have to do something, after all their macho rhetoric. Whether the Iraqis allow them to save face and then back out while declaring victory or launch an all out attack is anyone’s guess. My guess is that the second phase of the Iraqi Intifada is about to begin.