Saddam-Style Turnout Propaganda

There have been a lot of turnout estimates thrown around fast and loose — hopefully we will have a better indication of the truth soon.

But the International Organization for Migration (IOM) seems to have learned some propaganda techniques from the previous Iraqi leader. The IOM was in charge of out-of-country voting by Iraqis. This morning they released the news that “94 percent of registered expats voted.” This sounds awesome, and if true, must be a result of the fact that security and intimidation were not significant issues abroad (right?). However, they fail to mention that less than 25% of eligible Iraqi expats registered to vote.

One little-publicized reason for this low expat registration: Iraqi expats were required to travel to one of the polling-place cities a week before the election to register, then return a week later to actually vote. I assume that this would have been a significant hardship for many. In the US, there were five such cities, and many countries with expat populations had none. Within Iraq, same-day registration made this issue a moot point.

Hostile Territory?

There is much speculation floating around about the tragic crash of the British C-130 Hercules yesterday which occurred barely twenty miles northwest of Baghdad. While the BBC reports in Ten feared dead in Hercules crash that “…wreckage from the C-130 plane, which is known for its reliability, was spread over a wide area, after crashing in fine conditions,” the most telling statement in the entire article is this one:

“It is thought the investigation into what caused the crash could prove difficult in the hostile territory.”

“Hostile territory?” Are they saying there is still hostile territory merely twenty miles northwest of Baghdad? That tells a lot about current security conditions in Iraq. In fact, it sounds quite similar to conditions in Afghanistan outside of Kabul for the past three years.

You Got That Right

Andrew Gilligan, of the London Evening Standard, reporting from Iraq:

“Groups of men sat outside their shops, showing each other the ink-marked index fingers they got when they voted. It was a Shia area. so no problems about turnout. No doubt about what voters wanted either.

“‘Now we are democratic, the Americans must do what we ask, finish their mission and then leave,’ said Alaa Kadlim, as two Apache helicopters flew overhead. And will they? ‘They must,’ she says.”

Beyond the Hype

Getting beyond all the self-congratulatory hype in the American media, the London Independent offers this perspective from Iraq:

“The Americans have repeatedly charged that Iran was interfering in the election and bankrolling Shia Islamist parties such as Dawa and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) – both part of the Sistani list – with $20m (£10.6m). Waleed Ketan of the Iraqi National Accord, a secular party, claimed that Syed al-Battat, the man running the poll in the south for the Independent Electoral Commission for Iraq, had been a member of SCIRI and most of the election station managers in Basra were SCIRI sympathisers.

“‘The list with SCIRI has a chance of winning because they have taken over the polling stations,’ he said. ‘If that happens I shall leave the country, I do not want to live in an Islamist state.’

“Some voters were more sceptical. Moqtada Ali Riadh, 53, an engineer, said: ‘I am voting for List 169, and I fought in the war against Iran. This is Iraq, not Iran. What the Americans are saying is just to divide the people. We should take no notice.’

“Others insist that the elections are a sham. Hazim Abed Allakif, the head of the students’ union at Basra University, said ‘People standing at the elections can only do so with the permission of the US and Britain. We regard them as agents. These are not free elections.'”

Is Sistani Iraq’s Khomeini?

My Monday column calls the election “Sistani’s Triumph,” and suggests that the government that comes out of Sunday’s poll will be closer to the Iranian model than the American system. Here’s the conservative columnist Terry Jeffries, in a column published in May of last year that is of interest given the probable outcome of the Iraqi election:

“As we struggle to transform this conflict from an international military confrontation into a peaceful Iraqi political contest, we need to be as realistic in assessing the political obstacles confronting our efforts to leave Iraq with a benign regime as we are in assessing the military obstacles.

“One of those political obstacles is the Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani, Iraq’s leading Shiite cleric.

“Policymakers ought to carefully examine the similarities and differences between Sistani and Ayatollah Khomeini, the late Shiite cleric who sparked the Islamic revolution in Iran.

“One difference between Khomeini and Sistani is that Khomeini would actually meet with Westerners, including female Western reporters. Sistani won’t even meet with Ambassador Paul Bremer, head of the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority.

“This may be explained by an entry on Sistani’s English language Web site. Discussing things that are ‘najis,’ which he defines in a glossary as ‘impure,’ and things that are ‘pak,’ which he defines as ‘clean,’ Sistani says: ‘As regards people of the Book (i.e. the Jews and the Christians) . . . they are commonly considered najis, but it is not improbable that they are Pak. However it is better to avoid them.’

“Another difference between Khomeini and Sistani is that when Khomeini communicated with the West in the days before the Iranian revolution, he made soothing noises about free elections, political pluralism and women’s rights. When Sistani communicates with the West today, he speaks about free elections (which would empower his own Iraqi Shiite base, which makes up 65 percent of Iraq’s population), but he doesn’t tout pluralism or women’s rights. Indeed, Sistani won’t endorse Iraq’s draft constitution because it gives Iraqi Kurds a chance to veto Shiite political domination and because it doesn’t guarantee that Islamic law will be the basis of Iraqi government.

“Last November, Sistani ally Abdul Aziz al Hakim explained the ayatollah’s objection to a U.S. plan to hold caucuses to pick an interim government. ‘There should have been a stipulation which prevents legislating anything that contradicts Islam in the new Iraq,’ he said.

“In April, the New York Times reported: ‘Ayatollah Sistani’s supporters want Islam to govern such matters as family law, divorce and women’s rights.’

“Where does Sistani stand on these issues? Postings on his Web site include prescriptions for temporary marriage (‘In a fixed time marriage, the period of matrimony is fixed, for example, matrimonial relation is contracted with a woman for an hour, or a day, or a month, or a year, or more.’); keeping wives indoors (‘It is forbidden for the wife of a permanent marriage to go out without her husband’s permission.’); and multiple marriages and divorces (‘A man is not permitted to marry more than four women by way of permanent marriage. He also has the right to divorce his wives.’)

“Khomeini may have shared Sistani’s values here, but his pre-revolutionary propaganda was better packaged for the West.

“In November 1978, for example, Dorothy Gilliam of the Washington Post ‘Style’ section interviewed Khomeini, who was then living in exile in France. While noting that Khomeini’s aides ‘order Western women journalists to cover their heads and shoulders’ before meeting him, she dutifully recorded that the ayatollah himself said, ‘In Islamic society women will be free to choose their own destiny and activity. God created us equally.’

“That same month, Washington Post correspondent Ronald Koven also interviewed Khomeini and some of Khomeini’s aides. ‘The aides say he rejects the authoritarian models of Islamic republicanism in much of the Arab world. Iran is not an Arab country,’ wrote Koven. ‘The aide quoted Khomeini as saying, ‘In the history of Islam, those who denied God were free to express themselves.’ This, said the aide, is Khomeini’s way of saying all political parties would be legal in his vision of an Islamic republic to be established in a national referendum.’

“Why did the man who installed a theocracy in Iran in 1979 say these things in France in 1978? Perhaps he was practicing ‘taqiyya,’ the Shiite doctrine that Grand Ayatollah Sistani blandly defines on his Web site as: ‘Dissimulation about one’s beliefs in order to protect oneself, family, or property from harm.’ Sistani has written an unpublished treatise on this doctrine. Is it wise to assume he is not practicing it today in his dealings with a U.S. occupational force?”[/i]

Here’s more analysis of the “Sistani isn’t Khomeini” meme from the Christian Science Monitor:

“While Sistani’s involvement so far has been a moderating voice, stressing the need for free elections and the protection of Sunni and other minority rights in any Iraqi government, he is not a believer in a strict separation of church and state.

“He’s long rejected the thought of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who lived in exile in Najaf before leading Iran’s Islamic revolution and called for wilayat al-faqih, or the guardianship of the jurisprudent, that directed clerical rule. But Sistani has also written about the need for clerical influence in political life.

“”Sistani in his fatwas does talk about … the guardianship of the jurisprudent in social issues,” says Mr. Cole, the history professor. Sistani’s preference is ‘that clerics mostly leave running the state to lay persons. But the implication is that Shiite lay persons will be influenced by Sistani’s fatwas on legislative issues.'”

Live-blogging Pat and Frum on “Hardball”

I’m live-blogging Pat Buchanan and David Frum squaring off on “Hardball” with Chris Matthew. There’s Commissar Frum looking smarmy and green. Ewww… And there’s Pat, looking his usual great self.

Frum :This is part of a broader struggle. This shows the entire Middle East the way forward — and will show that the battle is between Zarqawi and Bush. This is now a war about democracy. And the democratic side has to win.

Pat: The election was act of courage by the people for going out and voting. The majority want a democratic future. Ah, but this is the question: Are they willing to fight and die for democracy with the same passion that the insurgents have shown? That will decide the fate of Iraq — and, frankly, the future of the Bush administration.

We must begin the withdrawal and transfer of sovereignty to the Iraqi people and their army. Are they willing to fight to crush the insurgency? One thing they have going for them: the insurgents are just fighting the Americans and the occupation. But if we leave, what are the insurgents fighting for?

Score so far: Pat 1, Frum 0

Matthews asks David Gregory: What now?

Gregory: We’re still in this huge battle with the Arab world and the Iraqis. Are we just trying to prop up Israel and get oil? What about Abu Ghraib?

Chris: The Middle East is used to our pro-Israeli bias. But what about what King Abdullah of Jordan says, it’s a Sunni-Shi’ite struggle. A lot of our friends are going to be concerned about the outcome of the election.

Gregory: We are tapping into a 1000-year old feud.

Chris: Pat, do we know what we’re getting into here?

Pat: Nope. We don’t, and we’re going to lose control of the situation, the Shi’ites are in control.

Chris: David, put this in perspective with a few well-chosen words.

Frum: We speak for democracy, Osama bin Laden speaks for his goats.

Me: Is David Frum really a robot programmed to string fragments of neocon phraseology into sentences and spit them out on cue? Notice how he tries to frame this all into some grand strategic framework, not in terms of how it benefits — or potentially harms — the Iraqi people.