‘Israel is not going to attack Iran’

Journalist Larry Derfner says it plainly: “Israel is not going to attack Iran.”

Not before the November 6 presidential election, not afterward if Obama wins, and maybe not afterward even if Romney wins, which is unlikely.

It’s not that Netanyahu doesn’t want to bomb Iran – he does, and he makes that clearer every day. What’s happened is that there’s been such a torrent of opposition in the Israeli media this week from the security establishment, starting with IDF chief Benny Gantz, and backed by the Obama Administration and Pentagon, that there’s no way Bibi can get his cabinet to vote for a war, and without the cabinet’s backing, he can’t do it. The ministers will not support Bibi in an extremely risky war opposed by the heads of the IDF, IDF Intelligence, the Air Force, the Mossad, the Shin Bet and the United States of America.

The military establishment in the United States and Israel have been pretty strongly against launching a war on Iran. In Israel, everyone from the former head of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad Meir Dagan, to current head of the Mossad Tamir Pardo, Israel’s military chief Benny Gantz, former prime minister Ehud Olmert, former leader of the Kadima party Tzipi Livni, and internal security chief Yuval Diskin, have come out to push back against Netanyahu. Broadly speaking, they argue that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, that Iran doesn’t present an existential threat, and that war is not the appropriate answer.

Those pushing for war are a relatively small but extremely influential group of politicians and foreign policy analysts. But since the costs of an unnecessary war are hard to deny – as is the fact that it’s even more likely to produce a nuclear Iran – these habitual interventionists will find other ways. Already, Foreign Affairs is running essays by raving necons like Michael Ledeen, who is arguing for Washington to foment internal revolution to change the regime in Iran…because, you know, that worked out so well last time.

2 thoughts on “‘Israel is not going to attack Iran’”

  1. If that happens, US and England needs to attack Israel.., after all it is their abused child so they need to say NO once and for all.

  2. It seems quite obvious that Israel and the U.S. have already begun a cyber war against Iran. No telling what other operations are underway. Conventional airstrikes may be both ineffective and unnecessary against underground nuclear facilities.

    Could they tunnel right to them? Who knows? Unless you're a higher-up in the military, don't embarrass yourself by trying to answer that question. The only other question is: Will Valerie Jarrett approve of it?

  3. You've got to be kidding me. Netanyahu is Hitler. He will get his way, whether theres a vote or not.

  4. He doesn't have to attack Iran to get a war against Iran started. He merely has to get one of the Western puppet governments to attack Syria, that's all.

  5. There are times you wonder if sanity has slipped its moorings and set sail for war based on the comments I've seen elsewhere. Then there are the vast number of rational, very much awake, people voicing their anger at these lunatics beating the drums to do so. Back before the Afghan and Iraq debacles they rode on the coat tails of emotionalism over 9-11 and what I'm concerned about is that it will be yet another bit of staged theatrics, on just as grandiose a scale, with the usual actors, that will tip the scales of idiocy once more.

  6. Feisty little Japan attacked much larger United States 70 years ago, attempting a small "surgical" strike. Israel should look very closely at what happened. Japan ended up having a new government system forced on them.

    I know it sounds unbelievable to arrogant Westerners, but the same thing would very likely be the outcome of any attack by Israel on Iran. The best case scenario for Israel would be a humiliating stalemate after about a decade, just like the Iran Iraq war.

  7. An attck in Iran would bring about the closure of the straight of Hormuz, the destruction of storage infrastructure along the gulf, the most likely destruction of other oil related Saudi oil infrastructure and maybe others like Kuwait. A logical response to the economic war and sanctions already in place against Iran by the west.

    End result barrel of oil at $300…minimun some estimate up to $500.00 per barrel for what about at least a year or two.

    This translates into a 500% increase in the cost of food (at the production level) worldwide, look for a billion or so deaths by starvation alone. A stated and admitted goal of the evil doers for a long time.
    Thres more than a nuclear Iran at stake here, it is the comming of the messiah (anti christ) that Israel (zionist) and the freemasons are pushing for…

  8. This is complete BS. I love you guys but you are lost at sea on this Glaser. If they get the Syrian Government overthrown war on Iran is automatic. Iraq and Libya are great success stories as far as the USA elite is concerned. These worthless brown skinned oxygen wasters need to die… as long as we keep killing them and creating chaos how it turns out in the end isn't important…our masters have figured out that having stateless governments isn't such a bad thing after all… as long as the middle east doesn't band together to kick our evil a$$es out we will continue our oppress our subhuman subjects.

    1. "These worthless brown skinned oxygen wasters need to die" – Who are you to judge anothers worth?

      Also, the USA doesn't have the ability to sustain a war against Iran. Iraq was not a success story, and the same with Afghanistan. The US is running with their tails between their legs now that they have figured out you cannot defeat people that do not want a democracy set up in their country.

  9. Hey, people used to write excellent, but the last several posts have been somewhat boringâ?¦ I miss your great writings. Past several posts are just a little out of track! come on!

  10. Then there are the vast number of rational, very much awake, people voicing their anger at these lunatics beating the drums to do so. LA Fashion

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  12. Broadly speaking, they argue that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, that Iran doesn’t present an existential threat, and that war is not the appropriate answer.

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