Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 17 May 2026, I was on “Switzerland” talking with Tom Switzer about a number of different subjects including the state of the war in Ukraine, the results of Trump’s trip to China, and the US obsession with settling scores with 94-year old Raul Castro by finally achieving regime change in Cuba. Of course, we also talked about whether President Trump will restart the bombing campaign against Iran this week. It is apparent that the blockade has not caused Iran to surrender and is unlikely to do so anytime soon. At the same time, the pressure on Trump to do something to rescue the situation increases every day.
The president has recently been talking tough about going back to bombing Iran and effectively destroying the country. But the initial 40-day bombing campaign failed and there is little reason to think that a renewed bombing campaign will lead to Iran capitulating. Plus, Iran has a second-strike capability that will surely cause even greater damage to the international economy. And then there is the matter of the dwindling stock of high-end US weapons. Still, Trump is desperate and does not appear to be inclined to accept defeat, so maybe he will roll the dice. If he does, it will not turn out well for him or us.
