Author: Daniel Larison

Originally appeared on The American Conservative.

The New York Times reports more on Trump’s sudden about-face in Libya:

The policy reversal came as a surprise in part because Mr. Hifter’s forces also appear to be losing ground. His promises of a quick victory have proved false, and his forces appear outmaneuvered by those aligned against them. Most analysts say that he has little hope of exerting his authority over all of Libya any time soon, so his continued campaign may only prolong the country’s instability.

In the meantime, the battle for Tripoli has now diverted the attention of most of the Libyan militias that had been engaged in combating the fighters of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, said Frederic Wehrey, an expert on Libya at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“It is nuts,” Mr. Wehrey said of Mr. Trump’s statement. “Even judging by the hard-nosed American goals of stabilizing the flow of oil and combating terrorism, this is completely shocking.”

The last time Trump endorsed a policy shift in the region as reckless and arbitrary as this one was probably when he decided to back the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar, and my guess is that this shift has been made for many of the same bad reasons. Much like the start of the Qatar crisis, Trump appears to be doing whatever the Saudis and UAE want him to do, and he apparently thinks that it has something to do with combating terrorism (probably because that is what the Saudis and UAE have told him). The absurdity of Trump’s position is that the escalation of civil war in Libya relieves pressure on the local ISIS affiliate and undermines current U.S. policy, and Trump’s backing of Haftar contradicts the position that his own officials took less than three weeks ago. The Washington Post also reported on the reversal:

Continue reading “Trump’s Destructive Decision to Embrace Haftar in Libya”

Originally appeared on The American Conservative.

Rohollah Faghihi reports on the damage that Trump administration decisions have done to the political fortunes of Iranian moderates and reformists and their agenda. One of the practical effects of designating the IRGC as terrorists has been to reduce the chances that Iran will adopt international standards on money laundering and terrorism financing:

Another impact of the IRGC’s designation as a foreign terrorist organization is the deterioration of prospects for the passage of bills designed to counter money laundering and terrorism financing. This legislation was submitted by the government to parliament in order to permanently exit the blacklist of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental organization created in 1989 that combats money laundering and terrorism financing. Accession to the UN Palermo Convention against transnational organized crime as well as becoming part of what is termed Combating the Financing of Terrorism has been stalled for months, with the bills stuck in the Expediency Council, which mediates disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council. The dispute has pitted the Rouhani administration against mainly hard-liners.

“The US action will enhance and strengthen the position of Expediency Council members regarding the FATF [bills] and the likelihood of rejecting them has increased,” said Gholam-Reza Mesbahi Moghaddam, a member of the Expediency Council, on April 8.

Applying an overly broad and inappropriate designation to the IRGC has just made it more difficult for supporters of the anti-money laundering legislation to get their bills passed. The administration’s heavy-handed misuse of the foreign terrorist organization (FTO) list is actually harming efforts to combat the financing of terrorism. Instead of encouraging Iran to crack down on money laundering and terrorism financing, the Trump administration just handed the opponents of these measures a propaganda coup and most likely torpedoed the legislation by once again undermining its advocates.

Continue reading “Trump’s Sanctions Kill Iranian Reforms”

Originally appeared on The American Conservative.

As expected, Trump used his veto tonight to reject S.J.Res. 7, the antiwar Yemen resolution passed by both houses of Congress earlier this year:

President Trump has just issued the second veto of his presidency, rejecting a resolution from Congress to end U.S. military support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen. Trump calls it a "dangerous attempt to weaken my constitutional authorities." pic.twitter.com/IgrxgE4943

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) April 16, 2019

Trump has been a supporter of the war on Yemen for years, and since taking office he has increased U.S. involvement in the conflict and vehemently resisted every attempt by Congress to curtail or end U.S. support for the Saudi coalition. He inherited this indefensible policy from Obama, but unlike many other Obama policies that he couldn’t wait to undo he continued and expanded on this one. His embrace of the Saudis and their war has been a major part of his foreign policy, and with this veto he has defined his presidency with his abject subservience to Riyadh and his complete indifference to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Trump has spent the last two years covering up for the Saudi coalition and their war crimes, and today he has used his veto to shield them from the consequences of their action one more time.

Continue reading “Trump’s Shameful Yemen Veto Defines His Presidency”

Originally appeared on The American Conservative.

The Venezuelan military has not budged from its support for Maduro:

Underpaid, underfed and humiliated by the autocratic turn their once-rich and democratic country had taken, the armed forces were the linchpin of the U.S. administration’s strategy. Some US officials predicted that Venezuela’s military would flip en masse within days.

Nearly three months later, Venezuela’s top-heavy military remains largely intact under President Nicolás Maduro. The once-brisk pace of defections to neighboring Colombia has slowed to a trickle. Fewer than 1,500 Venezuelan soldiers, relieved by the Colombian government of their weapons and uniforms and housed in sparsely furnished hotel rooms near the border, now sit waiting for something to happen.

Regime changers always assume that it will be easier, faster, and cheaper to topple a foreign government and deal with the aftermath than it really is. Almost three months since the US and other governments threw their support behind Guaido, their absurdly optimistic assumptions have been proven completely wrong. At some point, the administration and opposition will have to acknowledge that their attempt at regime change has failed, but they continue to cling to their fantasy that they sanction Maduro into submission. The sooner that the administration accepts that its policy won’t work, the sooner it can lift sanctions and back off from its misguided demands.

Continue reading “Trump’s Failing Venezuela Policy”

Originally appeared on The American Conservative.

Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge resumes his discrediting advocacy for the Mujahideen-e Khalq:

Which is why I include myself among an incredible cadre of men and women from across every spectrum of life and political affiliation, in Europe and here in America, who have decided to embrace publicly the viable alternative to the clerical regime, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), and the 10-point Plan advocated by the NCRI’s leader, Maryam Rajavi.

It is rather incredible that so many former government officials and retired officers have embraced a totalitarian cult as the “alternative” to another country’s government, but it has been going on for the better part of a decade now. All of the MEK’s American boosters have proven that they have such extraordinary bad judgment that they should have no business talking about Iran policy (or any other foreign policy issue), and their continued advocacy on behalf of this awful organization is proof of how easily corrupted our foreign policy debates are. The MEK probably does still engage in terrorism, since its members were reportedly the ones responsible for murdering Iranian scientists a few years back, but there is absolutely no question that they are not and never could be a “viable alternative” to the current government. It is an indictment of Ridge and others like him, including the National Security Advisor, that they are so gullible or so obsessed with regime change that they are willing to make such ridiculous claims in public.

Continue reading “The Iran Hawks’ Creepy Embrace of the MEK”

Originally appeared on The American Conservative.

Saudi coalition planes bombed the area next to a girls’ school in Sanaa earlier today, killing at least 11 and injuring dozens more:

At least eleven schoolgirls have been killed by an explosion at a warehouse in Yemen, medical officials say.

A total of 54 people in Sanaa have been wounded with eleven children in nearby schools pronounced dead after a metal workshop exploded.

Continue reading “Saudi Coalition Airstrikes Kill 11 Yemeni Girls”